Research Article |
Corresponding author: Mario J. Valladares-Garrido ( mvalladares@continental.edu.pe ) Academic editor: Valentina Petkova
© 2024 César Johan Pereira-Victorio, Virgilio E. Failoc-Rojas, Aldo Alvarez-Risco, Noelia Morocho-Alburqueque, Rubi Plasencia-Dueñas, Alicia Torres-Mera, Víctor J. Vera-Ponce, Shyla Del-Aguila-Arcentales, Jaime A. Yáñez, Mario J. Valladares-Garrido.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Pereira-Victorio CJ, Failoc-Rojas VE, Alvarez-Risco A, Morocho-Alburqueque N, Plasencia-Dueñas R, Torres-Mera A, Vera-Ponce VJ, Del-Aguila-Arcentales S, Yáñez JA, Valladares-Garrido MJ (2024) Echoes of the pandemic: Contrasting COVID-19 outbreaks in northern Peru. Pharmacia 71: 1-8. https://doi.org/10.3897/pharmacia.71.e122087
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Peru reported the second-highest COVID-19 cases in Latin America, after Brazil. The first COVID-19 wave occurred between March–December 2020, and the second occurred between January–September 2021. The differences between these waves remain largely unknown, and there is no comparison between them in Peru. We evaluated the variation in the clinical and epidemiological components of COVID-19-affected patients in both waves in northern Peru by a retrospective study using the clinical follow-up database of Lambayeque and the epidemiological notification form database of NotiWeb. The COVID-19-associated factors during the two waves were determined using simple and multiple regression analysis, and the prevalence ratio (PR) was estimated. During the second wave of COVID-19, there was an increase in cough symptoms in 12.1%, odynophagia in 5.0%, and chills in 16.0% compared with the first wave. The second wave was marked by a higher proportion of affected adolescents and children and a greater percentage of respiratory symptoms than the first wave.
COVID-19, pandemic waves, Peru, epidemiology, infection
The COVID-19 pandemic had many waves (
The comparison between these two pandemic waves remains largely unknown, and a comparison between the two waves has not yet been performed in northern Peru. Previous studies used a small sample size, with consequently low statistical power and heterogeneity of patients (
The novelty of the present study is based on the evidence of the impact of the first and second in the country with the highest mortality rates in the world due to COVID-19. It is also a country where vaccines of Chinese origin and a large lockdown of people were initially used. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the differences in the characteristics of clinical and epidemiological issues of patients treated in both waves of COVID-19.
Current research was analytical, retrospective, cross-sectional which was conducted to evaluate patients with COVID-19 cared at the Regional Hospital of Lambayeque (RHL) in Peru, during the period of COVID-19 health emergency, between both waves: First: March to December 2020 and second: January to September 2021. Lambayeque, a northern region of Peru, is divided into three provinces with a population of 1,197,260 citizens (according to the 2017 Population Census).
We used the clinical follow-up database of the RHL Epidemiology Office to obtain preliminary information of patients with COVID-19. This information was corroborated and incorporated to the epidemiological notification database that was retrieved from the Peruvian Epidemiological Surveillance System (NotiWeb) due to its epidemiological purpose, collects more complete information on the clinical–epidemiological profiles of patients as well as hospitalization and death outcomes. All people with a confirmed diagnosis seen at the RHL were simultaneously reported in the NotiWeb system.
The patients treated for COVID-19 at the RHL from March 2020 to September 2021. RHL was a level III facility according to the Peruvian Ministry of Health (MINSA), meaning that it has been the largest care center in northern Peru and Lambayeque during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The sample included patients with confirmed COVID-19 using routine diagnostic tests (serological/molecular/antigenic). Inclusion of individuals were performed in all patients attended at the RHL, regardless of being new or continuing MINSA users. Patients with no records and incomplete records were eliminated from the study.
The outcomes corresponded to clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19: signs, symptoms, daily number of cases, and death associated with the disease, which were registered at the time of notification. The exposure was the epidemic wave, which corresponded to the waves: March–December 2020 and January–September 2021. The study variables were divided in 1) epidemiological data: sex, age (continuous data), categorized age, presence of comorbidities (cancer, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, HIV), and 2) COVID-19 clinical data: daily number of cases (continuous data), death associated with the disease (no, yes), cough, odynophagia, chills, fever, respiratory distress, nasal congestion, general malaise, diarrhea, nausea/vomiting, headache, irritability, muscle and abdominal pain, pharyngeal exudate, conjunctival infection, seizure, and dyspnea.
The information from the NotiWeb was compared with the clinical follow-up data by the national identification number as the identification code. Then, a quality review was conducted to detect inconsistent, and incomplete data. Next, a variable called “pandemic wave type” was created considering the clinical and epidemiological profiles according to each wave. It was identified the clinical pattern of each wave.
By Stata v.16.0 the data were analyzed. The calculation of central tendency and dispersion was estimated in the descriptive analysis of numerical variables. Absolute and relative frequencies were calculated. It was conducted the chi-square homogeneity in the bivariate evaluation after evaluation of the expected frequency assumption. To compare the categorical clinical and epidemiological variables between patients attended during both waves was used the Fisher’s exact test. After calculating the normal distribution and homoscedasticity, it was conducted the Student’s t-test or Mann-Whitney U test. The statistical significance was established as p-values of <0.05. To determine the differences in the characteristics of patients with COVID-19 between both waves, a simple regression analysis was performed considering the exposure of each wave. A Poisson statistical model with log link function and robust variance was used to calculate prevalence ratios (PR) (95% CI).
The Ethics Committee of the RHL approved the research protocol, following the ethical guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki. It was maintained the confidentiality of the patient’s information. Non-identifying keys were used to handle and examine the data. The participants completed a informed consent.
We found 2697 patients in the first wave and 2325 patients in the second wave. Between the two waves, the age group most affected was adult. In both waves (all), there was a slight predominance of male cases over female cases (52.9% vs. 47.1%). Among the most frequent symptoms reported in general were cough (67.3%), respiratory distress (54.6%), and general malaise (58.1%). The mean number of days of disease onset at the time of notification in the first wave was 8.5 days, while in the second wave it was 6.6 days (p<0.001). During the second wave of COVID-19 there was an increase in the symptoms of cough in 12.1% (74.1% vs. 62.0%), odynophagia in 5.0% (37.6% vs. 32.6%), chills in 16.0% (18.9% vs. 2.9%), nasal congestion in 12.7% (23.5% vs. 10.8%), and dyspnea in 13.5% (44.6% vs. 31.1%) compared with the first wave. Fever, malaise, headache, and muscle, abdominal, and chest pain were reported in lower proportions in the second wave (Table
Clinical and epidemiological characteristics according to the pandemic wave.
Variables | Waves | ||
---|---|---|---|
First Wave (n = 2697) n (%) | Second Wave (n = 2325) n (%) | p* | |
Age (years)** | 46.54 ± 24.86 | 44.00 ± 21.75 | <0.001 |
Age (categorized) | <0.001 | ||
Child/Adolescent | 94 (3.5) | 284 (12.2) | |
Young | 248 (9.2) | 216 (9.3) | |
Adult | 1360 (50.4) | 1109 (47.7) | |
Older adult | 995 (36.9) | 716 (30.8) | |
Sex | <0.001 | ||
Female | 1332 (49.4) | 1032 (44.4) | |
Male | 1365 (50.6) | 1293 (55.6) | |
Daily number of cases*** | 11 (8–17) | 12 (8–16) | 0.686 |
Deceased | <0.001 | ||
No | 1181 (55.2) | 1253 (67.4) | |
Yes | 959 (44.8) | 607 (32.6) | |
SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS | |||
Cough | <0.001 | ||
No | 1021 (38.0) | 547 (25.9) | |
Yes | 1664 (62.0) | 1562 (74.1) | |
Odynophagia | <0.001 | ||
No | 1794 (67.4) | 1279 (62.5) | |
Yes | 869 (32.6) | 769 (37.6) | |
Nasal congestion | <0.001 | ||
No | 2374 (89.2) | 1537 (76.5) | |
Yes | 287 (10.8) | 471 (23.5) | |
Respiratory distress | 0.489 | ||
No | 1226 (45.8) | 945 (44.8) | |
Yes | 1449 (54.2) | 1163 (55.2) | |
Fever | <0.001 | ||
No | 1347 (50.3) | 1297 (63.0) | |
Yes | 1330 (49.7) | 761 (37.0) | |
Chills | <0.001 | ||
No | 2586 (97.2) | 1632 (81.3) | |
Yes | 76 (2.9) | 375 (18.9) | |
General malaise | <0.001 | ||
No | 1033 (38.5) | 976 (46.3) | |
Yes | 1647 (61.5) | 1134 (53.7) | |
Diarrhea | 0.558 | ||
No | 2423 (90.9) | 1785 (90.4) | |
Yes | 243 (9.1) | 190 (9.6) | |
Nausea | 0.543 | ||
No | 2523 (94.9) | 1866 (94.5) | |
Yes | 136 (5.1) | 109 (5.5) | |
Headache | 0.279 | ||
No | 2156 (80.8) | 1643 (82.0) | |
Yes | 513 (19.2) | 360 (18.0) | |
Irritability | 0.767 | ||
No | 2606 (98.1) | 1919 (98.0) | |
Yes | 51 (1.9) | 40 (2.0) | |
Muscle pain | <0.001 | ||
No | 2119 (79.5) | 1685 (84.7) | |
Yes | 547 (20.5) | 305 (15.3) | |
Abdominal pain | 0.001 | ||
No | 2546 (95.6) | 1917 (97.4) | |
Yes | 116 (4.4) | 51 (2.6) | |
Chest pain | <0.001 | ||
No | 2361 (88.7) | 1831 (92.6) | |
Yes | 300 (11.3) | 147 (7.4) | |
Anosmia | <0.001 | ||
No | 2656 (99.9) | 1930 (98.7) | |
Yes | 1 (0.04) | 26 (1.3) | |
Ageusia | <0.001 | ||
No | 2657 (100.0) | 1933 (98.9) | |
Yes | 0 (0.0) | 21 (1.1) | |
Pharyngeal exudate | 0.012 | ||
No | 2615 (98.4) | 1919 (97.4) | |
Yes | 42 (1.6) | 52 (2.6) | |
Conjunctival infection | 0.510 | ||
No | 2636 (99.2) | 1935 (99.0) | |
Yes | 21 (0.8) | 19 (1.0) | |
Seizure | 0.067 | ||
No | 2650 (99.7) | 1948 (99.4) | |
Yes | 7 (0.3) | 12 (0.6) | |
Dyspnea | <0.001 | ||
No | 1838 (68.9) | 1155 (55.4) | |
Yes | 830 (31.1) | 931 (44.6) | |
COMORBIDITIES | |||
Cardiovascular disease | <0.001 | ||
No | 2332 (87.5) | 1671 (83.3) | |
Yes | 332 (12.5) | 336 (16.7) | |
Diabetes | 0.015 | ||
No | 2412 (90.7) | 1768 (88.5) | |
Yes | 247 (9.3) | 229 (11.5) | |
HIV | 0.016 | ||
No | 2655 (99.9) | 1948 (99.6) | |
Yes | 2 (0.1) | 8 (0.4) | |
Chronic kidney disease | <0.001 | ||
No | 2586 (97.2) | 1862 (93.3) | |
Yes | 74 (2.8) | 133 (6.7) | |
Pulmonary disease | 0.666 | ||
No | 2636 (99.2) | 1945 (99.3) | |
Yes | 22 (0.8) | 14 (0.7) | |
Cancer | <0.001 | ||
No | 2629 (98.8) | 1890 (96.1) | |
Yes | 31 (1.2) | 76 (3.9) | |
Obesity | <0.001 | ||
No | 2640 (99.3) | 1815 (92.0) | |
Yes | 19 (0.7) | 159 (8.1) | |
Pregnancy | 0.001 | ||
No | 2579 (97.1) | 1890 (95.3) | |
Yes | 78 (2.9) | 94 (4.7) |
The frequency of having nasal congestion in the second wave was 2.17 times of that in the first wave (PR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.90–2.49; p < 0.001). Similarly, the frequency of chills (PR: 6.54) and pharyngeal exudate (PR: 1.67) was significantly higher in the second wave. Obesity, HIV, cancer, kidney disease, and being pregnant also showed higher frequencies in the second wave (Table
Simple regression analysis of the clinical and epidemiological variations of patients with COVID-19 treated at the Regional Hospital of Lambayeque during both waves.
Characteristics | Pandemic wave | ||
---|---|---|---|
Simple regression | |||
PR | 95% CI | p* | |
Age (categorized) | |||
Child/Adolescent | 3.50 | 2.79–4.40 | <0.001 |
Young | 1.01 | 0.85–1.20 | 0.908 |
Adult | 0.95 | 0.89–1.00 | 0.054 |
Older adult | 0.83 | 0.77–0.90 | <0.001 |
Deceased | |||
Yes | 0.92 | 0.90–0.94 | <0.001 |
Cough | |||
Yes | 1.20 | 1.15–1.24 | <0.001 |
Odynophagia | |||
Yes | 1.15 | 1.06–1.24 | <0.001 |
Nasal congestion | |||
Yes | 2.17 | 1.90–2.49 | <0.001 |
Respiratory distress | |||
Yes | 1.02 | 0.97–1.07 | 0.489 |
Fever | |||
Yes | 0.74 | 0.70–0.80 | <0.001 |
Chills | |||
Yes | 6.54 | 5.15–8.32 | <0.001 |
General malaise | |||
Yes | 0.87 | 0.83–0.92 | <0.001 |
Diarrhea | |||
Yes | 1.06 | 0.88–1.26 | 0.558 |
Nausea | |||
Yes | 1.08 | 0.84–1.38 | 0.543 |
Headache | |||
Yes | 0.94 | 0.83–1.06 | 0.280 |
Irritability | |||
Yes | 1.06 | 0.71–1.60 | 0.768 |
Muscle pain | |||
Yes | 0.75 | 0.66–0.85 | <0.001 |
Abdominal pain | |||
Yes | 0.59 | 0.43–0.82 | 0.002 |
Chest pain | |||
Yes | 0.66 | 0.55–0.80 | <0.001 |
Anosmia | |||
Yes | 1.38 | 1.33–1.44 | <0.001 |
Ageusia | |||
Yes | 1.41 | 1.39–1.42 | <0.001 |
Pharyngeal exudate | |||
Yes | 1.67 | 1.12–2.50 | 0.013 |
Conjunctival infection | |||
Yes | 1.23 | 0.66–2.28 | 0.511 |
Seizure | |||
Yes | 2.32 | 0.92–5.89 | 0.076 |
Dyspnea | |||
Yes | 1.43 | 1.33–1.54 | <0.001 |
Cardiovascular disease | |||
Yes | 1.34 | 1.17–1.55 | <0.001 |
Diabetes | |||
Yes | 1.23 | 1.04–1.46 | 0.015 |
HIV | |||
Yes | 5.43 | 1.15–25.56 | 0.032 |
Chronic kidney disease | |||
Yes | 2.40 | 1.81–3.17 | <0.001 |
Pulmonary disease | |||
Yes | 0.86 | 0.44–1.68 | 0.666 |
Cancer | |||
Yes | 3.32 | 2.19–5.02 | <0.001 |
Obesity | |||
Yes | 11.27 | 7.03–18.08 | <0.001 |
Pregnancy | |||
Yes | 1.61 | 1.20–2.17 | 0.001 |
The frequency of having nasal congestion in the second wave was 2.17 times of that in the first wave (PR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.90–2.49; p < 0.001). The frequency of chills (PR: 6.54) and pharyngeal exudate (PR: 1.67) was significantly higher in the second wave. Obesity, HIV, cancer, kidney disease, and being pregnant also showed higher frequencies in the second wave (Table
This study compared the signs and symptoms of COVID-19-affected patients in the first and second waves examined at RHL. In Peru, the second wave developed in a shorter time than the first wave.
Our results are comparable to similar studies conducted in different settings. We have observed that adults were the main affected group in both waves, which differs from previous reports in Spain showing that young people were mostly affected during the second wave (
The differences observed in our study may be related to characteristics of the population and the epidemic waves in northern Peru. In general, there were more adult patients and a slightly higher frequency of comorbidities. However, vaccination rates were present during the second wave, which could have protected patients from severity and deaths in this region (
Males were the most affected in both waves, a pattern like the national and international records of patients infected with COVID-19 (
The average age of patients was slightly lower in the second wave. This difference has also been found in other countries such as India (
In the second wave, the prevalence of COVID-19 infection in children was 250% higher than that in the first wave (PR: 3.50; 95% CI: 2.79–4.40), whereas the prevalence in older adults decreased by 17% (PR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77–0.90) compared to that in the first wave. These findings could be due to the start of vaccination in older adults (as of April 26, 2021), which protected against COVID-19 in second wave (that lasted until the end of December 2021 approximately), and consequently, the pediatric population remaining unvaccinated was affected in a greater proportion.
In second wave, the incidence of respiratory signs and symptoms such as cough (PR: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.15–1.24), dyspnea (PR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.33–1.54), nasal congestion (PR: 2.17; 95% CI: 1.90–2.49), and abnormal pulmonary auscultation (PR: 2.73, 95% CI: 2.32–3.21) was significantly increased compared to that in the first wave. This finding is different from an Italian study in which during the first wave, the proportion of cases with dyspnea (71.7% vs. 37.1%, OR: 4.29) and cough (45% vs. 22.8%, OR: 2.76) was higher in the second wave (
Current research shows that during the second wave, there was a significant increase in the number of patients with comorbidities in general. This is a different finding from an Indian study that found that patients examined in the second wave had a lower percentage of comorbidities (45.9% in the second wave vs. 55.9% in the first wave) (
Another study in Mexico during the second wave reported 5.4% of cases of chronic kidney disease (
In this study, the proportion of cases with HIV (0.1% vs. 0.4%; PR: 5.43), cancer (1.2% vs. 3.9%; PR: 3.32), and pregnancy (2.9% vs. 4.7%; PR: 1.61) increased between waves. One Indian study corroborates the increase in the proportion of cancer cases (1.8% vs. 1.9%; p = 0.5), although not significant (
Genomic surveillance is limited in developing countries; therefore, the findings of this study could be useful for epidemiological follow-up and for understanding the differences between both waves. Continuous epidemiological surveillance could help to be prepared for a possible fourth wave concerning the management of COVID-19 and prioritizing treatment for the most vulnerable population.
Current research has important limitations. Initially, a possible measurement bias existed during data collection due to different registration personnel. Moreover, our results reflect the profile of patients in the first and second waves from a single hospital in Peru. Hence, there could be a selection bias, where these findings do not represent the characteristics of patients with COVID-19 in the entire country, and there could also be significant differences concerning other regions of the country. Additionally, the comparison of clinical and epidemiological characteristics lacks detailed information on variants of concern. In future studies, a robust statistical difference may be achieved adjusting the regression analysis by relevant factors like age and sex. Despite these limitations, the strength of this study is that the sample size is large and obtained from a reference hospital for COVID-19 care, meaning that data have been captured from patients residing in not only Chiclayo but also the entire northern Peruvian macro region. This allows an adequate comparison and description of the pandemic waves.
The presentation of the second wave may have been different from the first wave. It was observed that in the second wave, there was a higher proportion of young people, including children, adolescents and young adults, who were affected compared to the first wave, while adults and young adults accounted for a lower percentage. In addition, during the second wave of COVID-19 in Lambayeque, Peru, there was a higher proportion of respiratory symptoms, such as cough and shortness of breath. Comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, HIV, chronic kidney disease, cancer, obesity, and pregnancy showed higher percentages among COVID-19 cases seen during the second wave, with a statistically significant difference.
The authors declare that the research was conducted without any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.